Re: Elections 2016 Hoffnung's Forecasts

[CllrGeoffAbell]

Might be fun doing a prediction for 2018 as well.  I could do one too, but certainly wouldn't release it before the election!

[ringi]

For the full results see http://democracy.stockport.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=40&RPID=5591838  however it looks like the page may be showing wrong data!

[admin]

Here are last night's full local election results.

The big news is probably that the Leader in Manor didn't get re-elected.

@Hoffnung managed to get 16 right out of 21.

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[admin]

For a bit of fun today and tomorrow I've pulled out @Hoffnung's preditions from the 2016 Elections thread (I think I've got them all) so we can see how accurate his forecasts were:

Let's have a look then.

Afew weeks age the scores were; Libdems 26, Labour 21. Conservaties 13. However the untimely death of Councillor Lenny Grice (Cheadle Hulme South) and the resignations of Patrick Mcauley and Mags Kirkham (Manor & Romiley respectively, have depleted the libdems to as you say 23.


In all, 21 seats are being contested. If we rule out the obvious ones which are almost certainly going to be easily held by the incumbent Councillor.

They are

Bramhall North C               Correct
Bramhall South C               Correct
Bredbury & Woodley LD     Correct
Brinnington L                     Correct
Cheadle & Gatley LD          Correct
Cheadle Hulme North LD     Correct
Davenport & Cale Green L  Correct
Edgeley L                           Correct
Heatons North L                 Correct
Heatons South L               Correct
Reddish North                    Correct 
That leaves us with 10 remaining seats.

In Alphabetical order.

Bredbury Green & Romiley.
The veteran libdem incumbent councillor Hazel Lees is retiring  (good luck Councillor Lees) and her replacement candidate is the controversial Lisa Smart. Her conservative opponent is the lesser known Sally Bennet. This is a hard one to call. I t will either be Lisa or Sally the otheres are just making up the numbers. It will I think be the closest election in the borough and much will depend on how hard each campaigns. Assuming that they both work equally as hard. The libdems are currently on a down whereas the Conservatives are on an up. PREDICTION: CONSERVATIVES TO JUST SHADE IT: Con gain. Wrong

Cheadle Hulme South (all right Wheels)
This election sees Mark Hunter (ex LD M.P.) trying to make a comeback in local politics. He is facing Conservative  unknown Stephen Robinson. I think that Hunter will have too much in the tank for Mr Robinson, but it isn't a certainty. PREDICTION LD HOLD. Correct

Hazel Grove
With the retirement of veteran incumbent LD Councillor Kevin Hogg and conservative gains at the last 2 elections, there is only one way this can go. PREDICTION CONSERVATIVE GAIN  BY A LANDSLIDE. Wrong

DO THE OTHERS TOMORROW.

Apologies for the omission. I should have said that Labour will easily hold Reddish North and South.   Correct

Which brings us to Heald Green   
Long time councillor Peter Burns is standing down even so a certain shoe in for the new Ratepayers candidate.  Correct

Manor Ward
One of the interesting wards this. Currently occupied by the current leader of the council, Libdem Sue Derbyshire. Holding a significant majority from Patrick McAuley's victory last year. However that was in a general election year and with no Conservative candidate. This year there will be no Councillor McAuley (who has a rep as tireless campaigner and there will be a Conservative candidate. PREDICTION: Hold but only just.  Wrong

Skip the Marples for the moment.

Offerton          
This one has been back and forth between Labour and Libdems in recent years. Just to complicate things even more, the standing candidate Laura Booth won the seat for Labour but then crossed the floor to the Libdems.
PREDICTION. Councillor Booth is the only candidate that lives in the ward and she has enogh name recognition to shade it, so libdem hold. Correct

 Stepping Hill

Conservatives just stole it last year from respected councillor Ben Alexander, with 163 votes . Resident libdem councillor Wendy Orrell standing down and former deputy leader Mark Weldon attempting to fill her shoes. Prediction Libdems have shot their bolt in this ward Conservative GAIN.  Wrong


Both Marple seats later this week.

Marple South

Essentially a contest between experienced former councillor and ex labour mayor Colin McAllister, now a lib dem and young sprog Tom Dowes. The High Lane Tory enclave forms a large chunk of this ward and they are notorious for staying at home during local elections.  The Conservatives have either shot themselves in the foot here or played a master stroke with their choice of candidate. If Tom can get his vote out and he has the advantage of young legs to do it, then a 628 vote advantage from last year and all its implications should be just too much for the wily McAllister.

Prediction: Conservative gain but with a reduced margin. Correct

Marple North

The most interesting one for me but that's probably because it is where I'll be voting.

Earlier this year it looked like a straight toe to toe slugging contest between début candidates John Bates and Malcolm Allan, the Conservatives coming in with a 300+ votes advantage from last year. This advantage was easily reversible. However what has happened since then is that John Bates has emerged as a forthcoming candidate who is prepared to engages on any issue, whereas Malcolm, unfortunately for him, has not emerged at all. Websites don't win elections (not yet anyway) but if this website is anything to go by, John has placed 91 posts about a multitude of issues, he has become involved, helpful and informative whereas Malcolm has placed 4 that have really been the opposite of this .

There is also an x factor here that isn't present in any of the other elections in the borough an independent candidate. Normally independent candidates can be summarily dismissed with a "bless em" and a consolation vote of 50/60 votes.

Not this time, this candidate is Kevin Dowling, local author, local hotelier, reality TV star and well known Marpleista. So what you may say? Well that gives him name recognition, a big factor in local elections. Furthermore there is no doubt that he is actually running a campaign as  good as both the Tories and the libdems and he has a personal following which the other two don't have. He came into a busy pub that I was in last week and he knew everybody in the place and they knew him - Councillor Kev as they still call him and the whole pub seemed to be saying that they would vote for him. He'd certainly put some colour into Marple politics.

It is inconceivable that an independent candidate first time out, from a standing start can win this, - but is it? What is certain is that he will get votes and it won't be 50 and the critical factor in this election might be - where he takes them from. 

PREDICTION: My heart says Councillor Kev, but my head says Conservative John. Forget it Malcolm, you don't even need to turn up, no offence intended, but so far you haven't anyway. Wrong