Dave wrote:
Now let's try to estimate 'spin-off shoppers' - those who visit at least one other (local) shop during their supermarket trip. We'va already assumed that 25 percent of Co-op shoppers may do this, so that produces 500 of the Co-op's depleted number of 2,000. Now Hibbert Lane is a bit further from other shops than the Co-op is, so let's assume a cautious 10 percent (800) of Tesco/Asda shoppers also visit at least one local shop as well. That gives a weekly total of 1,300 'spin-off shoppers' in Marple - a 30 percent increase over the current estimate of 1,000.
This is all speculation, of course - just like almost everything else on this thread Cheesy And all the above numbers are purely for illustration. But what I believe it shows is that although a new supermarket in Hibbert Lane would take some business away from other shops, this could be more tha offset by completely new business coming from people shopping in Marple who did not previously do so.
There are lots of assumptions in your numbers Dave that simply do not stack up and whilst its tempting to dismantle them step by step , it is perhaps more useful to challenge some of the overall assumptions:
The key question is why does anyone buy goods and services from shops in Marple anyway? It is because they can't buy them at the Coop or they prefer not to make the longer journey to a larger supermarket for reasons of economy (petrol) or time. Only the very committed eschew the lures of a weekly shop at a Tesco/Asda/Sainsbury's on principle alone, most of us are guilty in some way. But there are a significant number that feel that independent shops need supporting and recognise that fatal damage is done to towns and villages is done by the big four supermarkets in particular.
Ask yourself where would a Marple food festival be without independents? Or would you prefer to enjoy a few scraps from the deli counter in a Tesco? When was the last time you recognised more than one or two faces in a superstore and when the last time you had any sort of casual conversation with another shopper? Compare and contrast that to walking around Marple.
One of the significant omissions from your analysis is the numbers of people who buy stuff in Marple from one shop when their initial destination was another shop (Excluding the Coop or any future Hibbert Lane Supermarket). For example , I go to Marple to buy some seeds from Hollins, While I am there , I buy some plant pots perhaps and then pick up some lamb chops from Whites. May as well buy a magazine from the Newsagents too and a birthday card for Auntie Christine and so it goes. By your own admission, shops will close with the arrival of any large supermarket and therefore this dynamic of one shop sale generating another sale will certainly diminish as there would be fewer shops. If I ran a bakers, newsagents, greengrocer, off licence and small electrical goods supplier in Marple I would be feeling very threatened.
Two further rhetorical questions for you Dave. Firstly what new shops do you really believe would come to Marple, bearing in mind that smaller shops are suffering loss of trade from superstores 5 or 6 miles away anyway? Secondly if you believe that new retailers would open, would you not expect that view to be supported by a more postive attitude from the existing community of independent retailers in Marple to the potential arrival of a Tesco or Asda? I would challenge you to find a single one that would agree with your view!
