No-one knows whether the economy will recover by 2015, and to some extent that is now a worldwide issue which is out of any single national government's hands. But history tells us that a) people have short memories, and b), 'it's the economy, stupid', is generally what is in our minds when we put a cross on the ballot paper with the little stubby pencil. If by 2015 the UK economy is still in the dire state it is in today, many people will blame the government, whether or not that is justified.
Trouble is, the government this time is both the Tories and the Libdems. So discontented voters will have to find another party to vote for. And by then, 2010 will seem like a long time ago, and Gordon Brown will be a distant memory.
But don't worry Dukey - you won't be feeling dirty any time soon: the risk of you being represented by a Labour MP

is close to zero.
