Local election results

[Belly]

Well put Dave
The Coalition's economic policies have been disastrous so far.  Balls has been proved correct in his analyisis that overdone austerity will reduce growth. The markets at the time of the General Election signalled that they were content with Labour's deficit reduction programme for a new Parliament. Osborne has indeed gone too fast because his policies are idealogically-driven.

I'm no fan of the conservatives but I just don't agree with the analysis above. The current Balls plan appears to be nothing more than to shovel more (borrowed) cash into the econmonic fire at a time when things are very dicey indeed due to Europe and then to cross his fingers and hope that the extra spending delivers the magic growth that is sadly lacking throughout the rest of the Euro zone. If that plan should fail (see the last 2-3 yrs of Gordon Browns government) then we would be in a catastrophic mess. Its like a betting man who has just lost his shirt after a bad gamble, borrowing more cash to bet on a 'dead cert', because its bound to come up trumps this time.

I don't like austerity as much as the next person, but I recognise that you need to cut your cloth accrdingly if you want to pay back what you owe. Much of the bleating about 'cutting too deep' has all the ring of one of those petulant children on the BBC's 'Bank of Mum and Dad' after being brought to task for their debts. We can and will get through this, we just need to knuckle down and make it happen. Hard work and enterprise is only place where 'growth' will come from, not from yet more government spending.

[Deniseam]

Well put Dave
The Coalition's economic policies have been disastrous so far.  Balls has been proved correct in his analyisis that overdone austerity will reduce growth. The markets at the time of the General Election signalled that they were content with Labour's deficit reduction programme for a new Parliament. Osborne has indeed gone too fast because his policies are idealogically-driven.

[Dave]

I didn't know I was a Tory.

....reminds me of the famous 'duck test':  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test

'If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.'   

[doc]

[


Fortunately, Stockport will not fall into Labour hands.

Fortunately Dave Goddard's seat did.

[Duke Fame]

You've rested your case in true tory style there Duke...you've blamed Europe, blamed the feckless hordes, and chucked an insult in.  Mind you, given the headless-chicken impression the current tories are doing, blaming Europe, attacking the feckless hordes and insulting people pretty much sums up  tory policies completely. 

I didn't know I was a Tory.

It's not a case of blaming Europe but if our main Market is skint and our home Market is struggling, then there is not going to be a fast fix. I don't think ballsup's 5 point plan is anything but a waste of money. Reducing Vat on DIY stuff will help B&Qs profits but that's about all. Retaining all the public sector workers will just drive up costs and borrowing. The last vat decreasedid nowt to stimulate the economy. The only point of merit is to spend on infrastructure projects but he knows full well that the current lot are doing that already. Ballsup is a lying bog eyed r's who was full square behind getting into the mess we are in and I don't trust him at all.


The point is, it's

[Steptoe and Son]

You've rested your case in true tory style there Duke...you've blamed Europe, blamed the feckless hordes, and chucked an insult in.  Mind you, given the headless-chicken impression the current tories are doing, blaming Europe, attacking the feckless hordes and insulting people pretty much sums up  tory policies completely. 

[Duke Fame]

And there we are, it would be amusing if it hadn't have been so predictable 

Case rested:

Most intelligent people can understand

   

[Steptoe and Son]

And there we are, it would be amusing if it hadn't have been so predictable 

[Duke Fame]

Osbourne hasn't put a foot wrong from an economic POV.

Emergency Budget, June 2012 - Osborne's bold promises (and the reality):

1.   Growth at 2.8% by 2012.  The reality: -0.2%
2.   Deficit eliminated by 2014.   The reality: postponed until 2017 (maybe......)
3.   CPI in 2012: 2%.  The reality: 3.5%
4.   Unemployment in 2012: 7%.  The reality: 8.5%

And so on, and so on.  If that's getting it right, I hate to think what getting it wrong might look like          

And returning to the real world, there have been a few external shocks within those figures.

When the budgets were put together, we would have assumed growth within Europe of around 2-3% but the problems within Europe are far greater than anticipated.

The position left by Labour was horrendous, we all remember the little note left by the incompetents saying they'd spent all the money, you will recall Mervyn King saying that whoever was in power would have to make some very unpopular decisions and that's proving true.

Most intelligent people can understand that the solution to this mess is clamp down on unproductive spending, transfer the money we have to infrastructure spending. To do that. government must pare back on public services, encourage business to expand and over time it has to encourage development of more sectors in the economy because the emphasis on services makes us very vulnerable. This is not a quick fix, for the sake of the future, we can't have a quick fix.

Once people realise that the government is on the right lines, they will come round. There will always be those who think the world owes them a living and they will vote Labour but frankly, the country doesn't need them - the problem is those types will never have the get up and go to leave the country so we're stuck with them.

[Steptoe and Son]

Osbourne hasn't put a foot wrong from an economic POV.

Emergency Budget, June 2012 - Osborne's bold promises (and the reality):

1.   Growth at 2.8% by 2012.  The reality: -0.2%
2.   Deficit eliminated by 2014.   The reality: postponed until 2017 (maybe......)
3.   CPI in 2012: 2%.  The reality: 3.5%
4.   Unemployment in 2012: 7%.  The reality: 8.5%

And so on, and so on.  If that's getting it right, I hate to think what getting it wrong might look like          

Cue Duke Fame to point out that somehow, Mr Osborne et al are in now way responsible for the above and that really, he's a good sort.   

[Dave]

Osbourne hasn't put a foot wrong from an economic POV.

Emergency Budget, June 2012 - Osborne's bold promises (and the reality):

1.   Growth at 2.8% by 2012.  The reality: -0.2%
2.   Deficit eliminated by 2014.   The reality: postponed until 2017 (maybe......)
3.   CPI in 2012: 2%.  The reality: 3.5%
4.   Unemployment in 2012: 7%.  The reality: 8.5%

And so on, and so on.  If that's getting it right, I hate to think what getting it wrong might look like          

[simonesaffron]

It doesn't really matter whether in reality things are better or worse. Even if they are better which is highly unlikely under the current Cameron/Clegg bumble, the media will portray it as worse.

Anyway, back to Stockport and the 2014, local elections... Labour will win, Offerton,Manor, Hazel Grove and Cheadle and Gatley from the  Libdems thus making them the majority party then the following year they will win Heatons north and the "people matters seat" thus making the Town Hall... Labour...game,set and match.

There is a certain truth in that. Northern people have a tendency to feel hard done to and turn towards Labour and Labour like to keep their people at the bottom and without ambition in order to keep them grovelling. I think in fairness, Stockport folk are a little more ambitions than Mancs, Scousers and dare I say it (as it's where my roots are) Geordies and I don't think there will be the race to the bottom of the barrel here.

It is worth reminding ourselves that there are currently 21 political seats in Stockport that are Labour, a steady growth since 2010 and comprising one third of the total seats.

[Duke Fame]

It doesn't really matter whether in reality things are better or worse. Even if they are better which is highly unlikely under the current Cameron/Clegg bumble, the media will portray it as worse.

Anyway, back to Stockport and the 2014, local elections... Labour will win, Offerton,Manor, Hazel Grove and Cheadle and Gatley from the  Libdems thus making them the majority party then the following year they will win Heatons north and the "people matters seat" thus making the Town Hall... Labour...game,set and match.

There is a certain truth in that. Northern people have a tendency to feel hard done to and turn towards Labour and Labour like to keep their people at the bottom and without ambition in order to keep them grovelling. I think in fairness, Stockport folk are a little more ambitions than Mancs, Scousers and dare I say it (as it's where my roots are) Geordies and I don't think there will be the race to the bottom of the barrel here.

[Duke Fame]

the national scene will have improved a little by then

I wish I could be so optimistic, Duke. All the signs are that things are getting worse not better.  See, for example, http://www.ukrecession.com/2012/04/, which is normally an objective and reliable source.  

When this government came to power two years ago, they inherited a very serious economic position, although a fairly weak recovery was at that time under way.  Since then everything Osborne has done has made it worse.  The recovery of early 2010 was well and truly snuffed out, and as a result the government has had to borrow billions more than it planned just to keep the show on the road.  Far from seeing any improvement by 2014, the target date for balancing the books has now slipped back from 2015 to 2017, two years after the next election.  And the really scary thing is, Osborne is lashed to the helm of this sinking ship - he can't change direction and stimulate growth, as the Americans have done so effectively, because that would spook the bond markets.  

I'm no admirer of Mr Balls either, but surely he couldn't make a bigger mess of it than this.  

The recovery you mention has been non-existent, over time, we'll see a graph with a massive drop and then in reality, flat-lining for 5 years and slow recovery. We will not get to the growth and consumption of the naughties for many decades to come, as we know with hindsight, that was a phoney boom and always doomed to fail, the fact it went so long without catastrophe just meant that the catastrophe would be harder felt in the end.  Even A' level economics tells you that there is something wrong when growth was expanding in the 00's but trade deficits were worsening that the growth must only be based on an increase in Money supply or cheap imports, with no attempt at making the county's output more efficient (in fact quite the opposite) then failure was the only logical conclusion.

Osbourne hasn't put a foot wrong from an economic POV. Even the own goals politically have been correct. The realigning of the tax thresholds for everyone was spot on but spun as an attack on the retired, politically he should have made it far clearer but it was the right thing to do. The 50% rate cut was politically daft but we should remember that income tax isn't supposed to be a penalty for doing well, it's supposed to fund state activity and the aim is to get the optimum amount for the treasury.

The alternative put forward by Balls is a disaster. His solution of keeping the spending high in prder to keep people in public service jobs will do absolutely nothing to help the economy long-term. It's akin to the flash Harry who had a great job, flash house & motor who finds himself out of work; unprepared to lose-face, he borrows to keep his lifestyle to appear cool infront of his peers but ends up absolutely powerless to stop the bankruptcy which follows.

[simonesaffron]

It doesn't really matter whether in reality things are better or worse. Even if they are better which is highly unlikely under the current Cameron/Clegg bumble, the media will portray it as worse.

Anyway, back to Stockport and the 2014, local elections... Labour will win, Offerton,Manor, Hazel Grove and Cheadle and Gatley from the  Libdems thus making them the majority party then the following year they will win Heatons north and the "people matters seat" thus making the Town Hall... Labour...game,set and match.