Wheels,
It isn't really an "odd analysis". Its an analysis based on exactly that - analysis. Analysis of evidence and trend.
Wheels, where are these "expectations", "estimates " sourced ? Who are these "observers" that you speak of ? Are you sure that they are just not the wishful thinkers of the LibDem party in Stockport ?
After Stockports local elections in 2010 the register read;
LibDems 37, Labour 13. After the 2012 elections it read; LibDems 29, Labour 21. Even you will agree Wheels that this is a downward trend for the LibDems.
If Labour were to gain another 5 seats at LibDems expense then the issue would become very interesting indeed. But where will those seats come from ?
I'll explain later.