Local elections

[wheels]

It's a reasonable forecast Dave, based on mathematics and logic.

I think though that there is potential for an upset here. The incumbents are obviously favourites and the Lib Dems must consider Hazel Grove one of their fortress seats and  it depends on a few things happening together but its mainly to do with the candidates. The Conservative candidate is a local man born and bred in Hazel Grove. He's currently a local Councillor and I think that he's a local Schoolteacher so he's got local roots and he's come up through the ranks. The Lib Dem candidate has no connection at all to the area and nobody seems to know where she comes from and how she got here. That could be important.

Taking Hazel Grove at local level it's hard to read. In the local wards that make up the Parliamentary Constituency I.E. Hazel Grove, Offerton and both Marple wards, the following happened;

Hazel Grove: Taken from LD by CON.
Offerton: Taken by LD from CON.
Marple: Both seats held by LD.

I can't see Marple being anything but LD but as the saying goes 'a year is a long time in politics.'   

Does anybody know who the local candidates standing for Marple Wards are next year ?     
 

Well I could play this game and give you my forcasts as well. First of all I do agree incumbency is a important factor. However lets not forget that Stunell had no background in the constituency prior to winning it and was a living elsewhere when selected. Other than a rented house in Hibbert Lane he was not living here before he won. Lisa Smart has however been permanently living here for over two years.

The Tory candidate is not a teacher but is a teaching assistant and is not regarded as a serious candidate by many in the Town Hall.

I suspect Dave's numbers might well be pretty near the mark. Individuals it is said can put on about 1000 votes the rest all comes from the party machine and its clear to everyone who has the best machine.

Much more fun to play with who's going to win which wards next May.

[simonesaffron]

It's a reasonable forecast Dave, based on mathematics and logic.

I think though that there is potential for an upset here. The incumbents are obviously favourites and the Lib Dems must consider Hazel Grove one of their fortress seats and  it depends on a few things happening together but its mainly to do with the candidates. The Conservative candidate is a local man born and bred in Hazel Grove. He's currently a local Councillor and I think that he's a local Schoolteacher so he's got local roots and he's come up through the ranks. The Lib Dem candidate has no connection at all to the area and nobody seems to know where she comes from and how she got here. That could be important.

Taking Hazel Grove at local level it's hard to read. In the local wards that make up the Parliamentary Constituency I.E. Hazel Grove, Offerton and both Marple wards, the following happened;

Hazel Grove: Taken from LD by CON.
Offerton: Taken by LD from CON.
Marple: Both seats held by LD.

I can't see Marple being anything but LD but as the saying goes 'a year is a long time in politics.'   

Does anybody know who the local candidates standing for Marple Wards are next year ?     
 

[Dave]

It will be interesting to see what happens in next years elections as there will be a new Lib Dem Parliamentary Candidate but presumably the same old local Councillors.

Indeed, it will be very interesting!  So let's amuse ourselves with a spot of forecasting. 

First, a bit of background.  Sir Andrew Stunell was first elected in 1997, and has been re-elected at four successive elections since then.  In 1997 he won 54% of the vote (i.e. of those who actually voted).  Since then his majority has fallen slightly at each election, and at the most recent election in 2010 he had 49% of the vote.

At all four elections, the Tory candidate came second, but the share of the vote has shown no clear trend,  hovering around 30%, but rising to 34% In 2010.

Labour have come a poor third each time, with between 12% and 17% of the vote.

Interestingly, UKIP have steadily increased their vote, albeit from a very low start: they won a mere 0.5% of the vote in 1997, but by 2010 this had increased tenfold, to over 5%.

All this is from Wikipedia, of course. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazel_Grove_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

So here's a prediction based on the above, along with two further assumptions:

1.  Sir Andrew attracted a degree of 'loyalty factor' - he seems to have been regarded as a decent and hardworking constituency MP.  A new candidate will not benefit from anything like that, of course.

2.  There will be in Hazel Grove, as everywhere else, a fall in support for the LibDems because of their participation in the Tory-led Coalition. 

On that basis, I'll speculate that the % of the vote in Hazel Grove next year might divide up roughly as follows:

LibDem: 40%
Tory:      25%
Labour:   22%
UKIP:      13%

So my guess, for what it's worth (i.e. no more than anyone else's guess)  is that the LibDems will hold this seat with a reduced majority, losing a significant number of votes to Labour, while a few Tory and Labour voters will have defected to UKIP.   

[simonesaffron]

SimoneSaffron states

'If the Lib Dems put a donkey up it would still attract the core vote'.

I do not agree. I have not voted for the Lib Dems since the coalition with the Conservatives resulting in swingeing cuts in provision of local authority services but seven years as an SMBC employee in a post which involved a lot of interaction with Councillors throughout the Borough provided a valuable insight into which Councillors worked hard to solve constituents' problems. The LibDem local councilors always seemed to me to work incredibly hard for their constituents, full stop. The main reason that existing LibDem Councillors have been re-elected is definitely not the fact that they represent the LibDem Party: it is because over the years a huge number of people have complained to their LibDem Councillor about a hole in the road, an un-emptied dustbin, a faulty street light, a problem at a local school etc, etc, etc and they have then seen action as a result of intervention by the Councillor. A large proportion of these people may well not be happy with the current situation or with the LibDems but assistance at some time during the last few years led to them going to the voting booth. For many it is loyalty to individual Councillors that has led to re-election - not that they represent the LibDem Party.

I am sure that you are right in what you say Rambler but I'm equally sure that I am right too in what I say. Councillor intervention in Marple is always going to be Lib Dem because that's exactly what all our Councillors are. We have a newly elected Councillor in Marple. I am not suggesting in any way he's not a good man for the job but I'd never heard of him until the recent election. There can't be any loyalty for his interventions because before he was elected he hadn't made any. So why did he win the election? The answer is HE didn't the party did. The core vote that I referred to turned out for the party. I'm not saying that everybody who votes Lib Dem votes for the party but there is most definitely a core " Donkey" vote.

As you indicate in your post national and local are different. It will be interesting to see what happens in next years elections as there will be a new Lib Dem Parliamentary Candidate but presumably the same old local Councillors.       

 

[marplerambler]

SimoneSaffron states

'If the Lib Dems put a donkey up it would still attract the core vote'.

I do not agree. I have not voted for the Lib Dems since the coalition with the Conservatives resulting in swingeing cuts in provision of local authority services but seven years as an SMBC employee in a post which involved a lot of interaction with Councillors throughout the Borough provided a valuable insight into which Councillors worked hard to solve constituents' problems. The LibDem local councilors always seemed to me to work incredibly hard for their constituents, full stop. The main reason that existing LibDem Councillors have been re-elected is definitely not the fact that they represent the LibDem Party: it is because over the years a huge number of people have complained to their LibDem Councillor about a hole in the road, an un-emptied dustbin, a faulty street light, a problem at a local school etc, etc, etc and they have then seen action as a result of intervention by the Councillor. A large proportion of these people may well not be happy with the current situation or with the LibDems but assistance at some time during the last few years led to them going to the voting booth. For many it is loyalty to individual Councillors that has led to re-election - not that they represent the LibDem Party.

[Duke Fame]

A lot of the big houses in the Heatons that used to accommodate professionals and their families have now been turned into flats/ bedsits and now accommodate people who vote Labour. 

               

Third time of posting a reply - I think I know the type of labour voter you are referring to. 

[simonesaffron]

A lot of the big houses in the Heatons that used to accommodate professionals and their families have now been turned into flats/ bedsits and now accommodate people who vote Labour. 

[Duke Fame]

Con No Change Lost 2 Heatons North and Offerton and Gained Hazel Grove  and Stepping Hill
Labour + 1 Heatons North

THe Heatons must have gone really downhill to end up with all Labour councillors. I've lived in Heatons as well as other places accross the country and can say I've never lived in an area deprived enough (apart from being a student in Newcastle) to have a labour local councillor.

[wheels]

Wheels,

Obviously you haven't tried to phone the Council in the last twelve months or you wouldn't be suggesting it to somebody else as a practical course of action.

Your correct Simone, it's probably because I find the services so outstanding I would never feel the need to complain.
Anyway I would communicate with the council in a different way

[simonesaffron]

Wheels,

Obviously you haven't tried to phone the Council in the last twelve months or you wouldn't be suggesting it to somebody else as a practical course of action.

[wheels]

No  I am not suggesting that but if it had happened to me for three years as you claim I think I might have picked up the phone and done something about it rather than just moaning about it

[My login is Henrietta]

Well rather than moan why don't you check you entitled while the register is compiled as of 15th Oct each year you are entitled to be added any time up until about a month before the election. Get it sorted on Tuesday its your responsibility no one elses

One assumes, possibly foolishly, that filling in the form and returning it would be enough. It has worked in every other place I've lived.

Are you suggesting that everyone who is of voting age in the Stockport area should check the register every year? SMBC staff would be tearing out their hair!

[wheels]

Some of us, despite filling in the electoral register form each year for the last 3 didn't get a vote. I'm not on the register, apparently, so the absence of my vote has nothing to do with my lazy backside.

Well rather than moan why don't you check you entitled while the register is compiled as of15th Oct each year you are entitled to be added any time up until about a month before the election. Get it sorted on Tuesday its your responsibility no one elses

[My login is Henrietta]

abell voted in with just 37% of the vote. 63% didn`t vote for him.

ingham voted in with just 38% of the vote, 62% didn`t vote for her.

Just over 8000 people bothered to vote combined in marple north and south, what about the 15000 who couldn`t be bothered to get off their lazy backsides and put an X on 2 ballot papers.

 

Some of us, despite filling in the electoral register form each year for the last 3 didn't get a vote. I'm not on the register, apparently, so the absence of my vote has nothing to do with my lazy backside.

[wheels]

Well you will have noted Simone that the Tories are now starting to be challenged in Bramhall South.