Who are the candidates and who's got your vote?

[moorendman]

Completely second that Bowden. Next stop for that traitor is the Tower, unfortunately Hamlets.

[Bowden Guy]

And a fond farewell, also, to the execrable George Galloway, the supreme purveyor of identity politics in London, Bradford.....hammered by Labour. Surely the most repulsive politician of the past 30 years?

[Bowden Guy]

Well said, Dave - my thoughts entirely. A bully, and an incompetent one at that.

[Dave]

The day gets even better. I see that Ed Balls' political career is 'flatlining"......

Yes, Balls will surely be remembered as the Michael Portillo of this election   

For me, his unforgivable sin was as Secretary of State for Education.  After the horrible 'baby P' case, he instructed the relevant local authority to summarily dismiss its Head of Children's Services without following any kind of disciplinary process.  That was a mistake, but we all make mistakes sometimes.   But it was unforgivable when, after the woman who was sacked successfully sued for unfair dismissal, and was awarded about £500,000 of taxpayers' money in compensation, Balls refused to apologise and simply said 'no regrets - I would do it all again'.

A politician who believes he is above the law is not fit to hold public office, and it's good that he's gone. 

[Bowden Guy]

The day gets even better. I see that Ed Balls' political career is 'flatlining"......

[moorendman]

Thank you all for your gracious responses. I admittedly underestimated the UKIP vote, on reflection. The possibly unpalatable fact is that potential labour voters in traditional areas voted UKIP. Labour failed to address the concerns of white van man preferring to major on their own perceived issues., such as zero hours and nhs "crisis". I thought the UKIP vote would soften at the end.

[simonesaffron]

Congratulations to William Wragg.

Let us hope that, that result doesn't transfer locally.

Well done moorendman, you got more right than wrong.

Maybe you can give up the day job after all.   

[Howard]

Congratulations @moorendman,  there's a job waiting for you at YouGov

[Dave]

Here are yesterday's Hazel Grove figures in votes rather than %s, and with the 2010 results in brackets.

Conservative         17,882    (14,114)   

Liberal Democrat   11,330    (20,485)   

Labour                   7,584      (5,234)

UKIP                      5,283       (2,148)

Green Party           1,140            -

perhaps my forecast is not as skewed as some thought.

Indeed - well done moorendman.  His Labour surge never happened, so the Lib Dems comfortably held on to second place, but he did foresee the dramatic nature of the Lib Dem collapse.  9,000 people who voted Lib Dem five years ago switched their allegiance - that's pretty remarkable.  Looking at the figures, one guess would be that most of then went to the Tories, but that the net increase in the overall Tory vote was not that great because of Tory voters switching to UKIP. 

[admin]

According to the Manchester Evening News the results are:

William Wragg(Conservative) 41.38% (17,882)
Lisa Smart(Liberal Democrat) 26.22% (11,330)
Michael Taylor(Labour) 17.55% (7,584)
Darran Palmer(UK Independence Party) 12.22% (5,283)
Graham Reid (Green Party) 2.63% (1,140)

Congratulations to William Wragg, our new MP for Hazel Grove.

[Howard]

Actually @moorendman you might be right. BBC are now predicting a significant Conservative gain for Hazel Grove.

[moorendman]

On exit poll and the massive collapse of lib dem votes in the two Sunderland seats , perhaps my forecast is not as skewed as some thought.

[Howard]

Combined BBC,  ITN and Sky exit poll:
Con:  316
Lab: 239
LD: 10
SNP: 58
UKIP: 2

YouGov exit poll:
CON 284
LAB 263
LD 31
SNP 48
UKIP 2
PLAID 3
GREEN 1

[Bowden Guy]

Well, if the BBC exit poll is, indeed, correct, perhaps William Wragg will be a happy chappy tomorrow morning?

[Melancholyflower]

I think you're close there simonesaffron. That's pretty much how I reckon things will pan out.

On the other hand, we could be completely wrong!