Michael Taylor to fight Hazel Grove for Labour

[wheels]

Both Dave and Simone fail to factor in the half dozen or so seats the Lib Dems are expected to gain,  it might be more for all I know, Watford being the most obvious.

[Bowden Guy]

2010 General Election in Scotland

Liberal Democrats   18.9% of votes = 11 seats
SNP.                      19.9% of votes  = 6 seats
Conservatives.        16.7% of votes = 1 seat

Under our electoral system, it's not "how many" votes you get, but how well they are geographically concentrated. Perhaps we should have a referendum.........

[Dave]

Conservatives hold 303 seats, Labour 257 and Libdem 56.

Simone is right about the  number of Labour MPs - it's 257, not 216 as I suggested above.  However, I'm not sure she's right about this:

I now think that the Libdems will not lose as many seats as predicted, they may hold on to as many as 40...... [the Tories] will not want to be in a raggle- taggle  confidence and supply deal with all varieties so they will turn again to the LibDems, who if nothing else are a concerted party who can be whipped to vote like one, when and where it counts.   

First, current opinion polls are showing LibDem support at a remarkable low of 6%, below UKIP and the Greens.  From that sort of base, it will be amazing if they only lose 16 seats. 

As for the prospects of another Tory/LibDem coalition, you have to remember that Cameron is scared stiff of his right-wing backbenchers, many of whom are determined that they will not get into bed with those pesky Liberals ever again!   And their constant threat, of course, is that if Cameron doesn't do what they want, they will run off and join UKIP.

[simonesaffron]

Conservatives hold 303 seats, Labour 257 and Libdem 56.

The remainder are made up of a assortment of independents and others including 2 Conservative defectors to Ukip. The most significant number amongst these independents are the Irish, who I think ( I've not checked) hold about fifteen seats between them. The Unionists will pitch in with the Tories whilst the Republicans just won't turn up. Ukip will disappoint (themselves mainly)  and I now think that the Libdems will not lose as many seats as predicted, they may hold on to as many as 40.

The key ground is Scotland where Labour have 40 MP's and the Tories have only 1. If the SNP takes seats in Scotland it will be off Labour and to a lesser extent LibDems  who hold 11 seats.  So Conservative should easily come out as the largest party. They will not want to be in a raggle- taggle  confidence and supply deal with all varieties so they will turn again to the LibDems, who if nothing else are a concerted party who can be whipped to vote like one, when and where it counts.   

 

[Duke Fame]

But there again, we could all have a big surprise and end up with Red Ed and Wee 'Eck!

I think Lab will need more than just Colin Hendrie's drag act. I think they will need Sein Fein and the Brighton Greens (there's a connection there).

The Conservatives will  get the usual arrangement from their friends in Ulster and with the Lib Dems (36 seats) + one UKIP =, that should be enough to keep the left out.

I think it will be good to see the Greek experience where the left's idealistic policies rather crumble in the face of realism.   

[Dave]

By the end of May we will, once again, have a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition

That's pretty unlikely, IMO.  Here's why:  the number of seats currently held by the Tories is 302, and the LibDems is 56.  So together they have 358 seats.  The magic number needed for an overall majority is 326.

However, the LibDems are widely expected to lose about 50% of their seats.  So lets assume they hold on to, say, 30 of them (including this one, I reckon - just!). 

So if the Tories were to simply retain their current 302 seats, that would leave the combined number of seats held after the May election at 302 Tory  + 30 LibDem = 332.  That is only six more than the minimum need for an overall majority - too close for comfort. And anyway, we can't assume that the Tories will retain their 302 seats - far from it.  Two reasons for that:

1.  History tells us that governing parties rarely increase their share of the vote or their number of seats when seeking re-election.
2.  UKIP are snapping at their heels. 

On the other hand, Labour currently have a mere 216 seats, and they are almost certainly going to lose some of those to the SNP. So for what's it's worth, my guess is that the Tories will still end up as the largest single party, but that they will try to form a minority government and work more informally with a couple of other parties (LibDems, the DUP, even UKIP!) on what is apparently called a 'confidence and supply' basis. 

But there again, we could all have a big surprise and end up with Red Ed and Wee 'Eck! 

[marpleleaf]

The blog post that Duke refers to is here:

http://themarpleleaf.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/if-you-support-labour-and-live-in.html

In other good news. Marple Churches Together are holding a hustings on the 23rd of April at the Methodist Church.

Cheers,

MT

[wheels]

I accept that may be the case. My comment is all about the delivery and its influence on me (and possibly others) is unchanged by subsequent responses. Good job wheels is not heading up the LibDem campaign strategy   

Why would I run the Lib Dem campaign. Why run a campaign for a party I am not a member of and I was perfectly clear I voted for Ed Milaband in the Labour leadership elections. 

[Duke Fame]

I am a little confused about the call by both the Lib Dems and Tories to vote tactically for them to keep the other out when we already have a Tory and Lib-Dem coalition in power, which no-one voted for.

What will be interesting to see is:

- the impact forming a government with the Tories has on the Lib Dems in Hazel Grove (if any)
- the impact Andrew Stunell MP retiring has (if any); and
- the 'rise' of the UKIP vote (if any).

This is just a hunch but my guess is that is why Michael went for Labour. Putting on a yellow rosette is a risk because it's a decent seat to lose (given the bad Lib Dem press), putting on a blue rosette is also a risk as UKIP could erode the vote. Michael will poll more votes than the previous candidate (whom, at the Q&A event managed to give his opinion without following any Labour policy) so his stick will be high even though he'll not win.

[Duke Fame]

Duke,

There might be an argument for/against voting tactically Duke. I can't though see an argument for voting with futility. I may as well stay in with the telly or go down the pub with my sister. Obviously I am not against Michael, in fact fair play to him for standing up to be counted, but hooking yourself up with Labour around here is just absolutely pointless.

Bowden, I'm not sure if your percentages are correct but I think that your general prediction is probably right.

It depends, running in an impossible seat but attracting a few extra votes will be seen as a strong performance by the Millbank greasy-pole climbers.  Don't be surprised to see Michael at the 2020 election with a parachute on his back in one of the less salubrious of constituencies where non-Labour MP is as likely as dung from the proverbial rocking-horse. I'm sure He'd have liked to fight for Jack Straw's but I'm afraid it's more likely to be somewhere far worse, Sunderland??

[BennyBlue]

I am a little confused about the call by both the Lib Dems and Tories to vote tactically for them to keep the other out when we already have a Tory and Lib-Dem coalition in power, which no-one voted for.

What will be interesting to see is:

- the impact forming a government with the Tories has on the Lib Dems in Hazel Grove (if any)
- the impact Andrew Stunell MP retiring has (if any); and
- the 'rise' of the UKIP vote (if any).

[simonesaffron]

Duke,

There might be an argument for/against voting tactically Duke. I can't though see an argument for voting with futility. I may as well stay in with the telly or go down the pub with my sister. Obviously I am not against Michael, in fact fair play to him for standing up to be counted, but hooking yourself up with Labour around here is just absolutely pointless.

Bowden, I'm not sure if your percentages are correct but I think that your general prediction is probably right.

   
   

[Bowden Guy]

Like others on this Forum, I fully expect the Laour vote to be squeezed very tightly in HG ("only the Tories can keep out the Lib Dems here!"). Don't think UKIP will do that well, although it's share of the vote will increase compared to 2010.

Liberal Democrats 40%
Conservatives 37%
Ukip 15%
Labour 8%

By the end of May we will, once again, have a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, although the balance of power may swing further to the Tories if they can increase their number of MPs, given that the LDs are going to lose a lot of their seats.

[Duke Fame]

Even though Wheels's delivery is a bit brutal, his comments are, as he says, honest.

As well as this a quick glance at 2010 election results supports his prediction of Labour's 2015 outcome.  He is probably right, they will do well to come in fourth. Their share of the vote in 2015 was a miserable 12%, that was actually down 3% on their previous electoral performance and that was long before the emergence of UKIP. They have got absolutely nothing going for them in Hazel Grove. It is therefore a reasonable assumption to make, that bar a few donkey voters, this time they will be erased.

If I vote LD they'll probably win, If I vote Con they might do and if I vote UKIP, well who knows? 

As I say, I am willing to be convinced, in fact I wish somebody could do it, but isn't voting Labour in Hazel Grove the best example of a pointless, wasted vote that anybody could wish to find across the length and breadth of the whole country ?     

As you may guess, I'm not suggesting you vote for Mr Taylor (in fact, I say don't vote for Mr Taylor, If Labour get in, we'll be back to square one) but Michael made a fairly good case for not voting tactically on his blog last week. It seems to have been taken down again (I wonder if he was worried about breaking the rules) but it was actually a decent argument against voting tactically for a party you don't support.

[admin]

Even though Wheels's delivery is a bit brutal, his comments are, as he says, honest.

I accept that may be the case. My comment is all about the delivery and its influence on me (and possibly others) is unchanged by subsequent responses. Good job wheels is not heading up the LibDem campaign strategy