EU Referendum

[Dave]

Thanks Howard - that's very interesting.  You need to read it all, but it seems to me that the key points are:

1.  There's no correlation between leave voters and those who have come off worst as a result of post 2010 austerity.  So the Leave vote is not a protest against the Tory government.

2.  Quote: 'This is not a class conflict so much as a values divide that cuts across lines of age, income, education and even party.....Values, such as whether children should obey their parents or whether we should bring back the death penalty, are better indicators of a Leave or Remain vote than income '

And the blogger illustrates point no 2 above with a fascinating chart showing the correlation between voting Leave and support for the death penalty, and that it cuts across all income levels. 
 

[Howard]

This is one of the best, non-biased, pieces I have seen on the Brexit. It's very well written:
https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/looking-behind-the-brexit-anger/

[tonysheldon]

There are many reasons why people voted the way they did, but I think it is reasonable to suggest that people disposed to a racist outlook would tend to vote Out rather than IN. As I say, doubtlessly most had nobler reasons to vote Leave, but in recent days I have spoken to East Europeans working here, and to people of mixed-heritage.
I have been shocked by their accounts of recent racist abuse in the streets of Manchester and the genuine apprehension caused by the knowledge of it.  The referendum has unearthed a nasty strain in the English character and seems to have given racist individuals some feeling of permission to act in this manner.

[Dave]

I could of course do the same in reverse and list the sillier reasons for voting remain (if we leave, there will be a third world war; if we leave, the entire economy will collapse overnight; I have to vote remain because I can't stand Nigel Farage)

Sorry Condate but you have made those up.  Unlike 'I want my country back' no-one actually said any of those.  See, for example http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/664333/We-want-our-country-back-Farage-rallies-troops-ahead-of-Independence-Day-Brexit

some remain voters have silly reasons for voting remain (listen to real people and you'll hear some).

Come on Condate, let's have some real examples, with evidence. Not quotes that you have made up.   

Of course, the press tended to pick up only on the sillier leave supporters

Seeing as the majority of the press were pro-leave, why would any of them have done that? 

[Condate]

Really?  Well here is a selection of typical reasons for Remaining, as given by countless politicians and people interviewed in the street:  'We need to work and trade closely with our European partners; leaving the EU will cause a fall in the value of sterling and a fall in UK GDP; the UK's influence in the world will fall if we leave the EU; the EU is a beacon of democracy - for example, an important bulwark against Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere;  EU membership brings huge benefits to jobs and the economy through inward investment by multinational companies - Nissan, Toyota, the big banks etc etc'  And so on.

Which of those are stupid or ignorant?  Compared with 'I want my country back'?

Those arguments are not stupid;  unconvincing but not at all stupid or ignorant. You are of course not comparing like with like. I could of course do the same in reverse and list the sillier reasons for voting remain (if we leave, there will be a third world war; if we leave, the entire economy will collapse overnight; I have to vote remain because I can't stand Nigel Farage) and claim that this proves that remain voters are stupid and ignorant. They are not of course and most remain voters, like most leave voters have reasonable arguments for voting the way they did. Some leave voters have silly reasons for voting leave (and yes, I've certainly heard some bizarre ones) and some remain voters have silly reasons for voting remain (listen to real people and you'll hear some). Of course, the press tended to pick up only on the sillier leave supporters and never bothered in most cases to interview the majority, who were neither xenophobes, nor anti-European.

[Dave]

I very much doubt that the levels of stupidity, or ignorance differs much between leave and remain voters.

Really?  Well here is a selection of typical reasons for Remaining, as given by countless politicians and people interviewed in the street:  'We need to work and trade closely with our European partners; leaving the EU will cause a fall in the value of sterling and a fall in UK GDP; the UK's influence in the world will fall if we leave the EU; the EU is a beacon of democracy - for example, an important bulwark against Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere;  EU membership brings huge benefits to jobs and the economy through inward investment by multinational companies - Nissan, Toyota, the big banks etc etc'  And so on.

Which of those are stupid or ignorant?  Compared with 'I want my country back'?

[Condate]

The paucity of knowledge of how the world works in the areas which voted Leave is horrifying.

Really? I could equally well say the same of the area which voted remain. Clearly there are many people who have no idea that Europe and the EU are two completely different things and that one can be pro-European and still vote leave and who therefore voted remain without understanding the issue.

The fact is that some people voted leave and some voted remain without understanding the issues. Most who voted to leave or remain did understand, but came to different conclusions. I very much doubt that the levels of stupidity, or ignorance differs much between leave and remain voters.

[Howard]

So we could find the nation facing this period of dangerous uncertainty, which many are describing as the gravest political and economic crisis since World War II, with both major parliamentary parties led by men who don't command the support of their own MPs in the House of Commons.   

I think you're probably right, @Dave although the early-mid 1970s resulting in us calling in the IMF in 1976 after the 3-day week, the Winter of Discontent etc is probably close.

I think economically we'll be diminished but OK in a few years. We do have a relatively strong economy, we do have a worldwide reputation as a strong trading partner and we do have a powerful scientific research reputation. All of those will be diminished by the Brexit. I'd like to think that when we have to compensate for the financial impact that we actually invest in science, technology and education. The finanicial industry is actually going to go through a huge change soon anyway related to software and technologies that automate a lot of what current bankers do so we'll have to reduce our reliance on those people. Perhaps we can use their analytical skills in ways that might benfit the whole country rather than them and their shareholders.

I think the financial impact will be easier to deal with than the social impact. The paucity of knowledge of how the world works in the areas which voted Leave is horrifying. Much of it is down to poor education although you can't discount the disgracefully biased press which informs much of its readership. Couple that with demagogues like Farage and it created a poisonous mix which lead to the Leave vote.

[Dave]

The thing about Boris is that he reportedly has far more support among Tory party grassroots members than he does among his fellow Tory MPs.

And of course, that's exactly how it is with Jeremy Corbyn as well.

So we could find the nation facing this period of dangerous uncertainty, which many are describing as the gravest political and economic crisis since World War II, with both major parliamentary parties led by men who don't command the support of their own MPs in the House of Commons.   

[CllrGeoffAbell]

Anyone but Boris!   Teresa May looks like a safe pair of hands to me, and the sooner the better.  Cameron is finished and needs to go ASAP.  We urgently need someone to steady the ship, look as though they are in charge, and exude an air of calm reassurance.  Addressing the nation would also be a good idea, if only to try to nip this sort of thing in the bud before it gets any worse: http://salfordonline.com/26927-watch-horrific-racist-abuse-teenagers-tram.html

@Dave that was really worrying because it was during the day and in the middle of Manchester.  I was proud of the US vet who stepped in.  Sadly some of this went on before the referendum as well.

I'd also like to share with you a Marple correspondent's contribution in a national newspaper yesterday:

Failure to get the message across

"It seems we have a considerable number of people in the UK who don't know that a referendum isn't a protest vote;  think that voting for the opposite of what you what will get the right outcome;  don't read newspapers, watch TV or listen to the radio, so were unaware of migration concessions David Cameron had achieved or that Labour was supporting Remain;  believe that Johnson, Gove and Farage aren't members of the political establishment;  think that Johnson is a fit man to run the country. 

"No wonder we need to import people from other countries to do the jobs the economy needs."

[simonesaffron]

Yes,

The idea of Boris at first is quite amusing. That is until you stop laughing, then you realise how serious it is.

[simonesaffron]

Yes,

[Dave]

Anyone but Boris!   Teresa May looks like a safe pair of hands to me, and the sooner the better.  Cameron is finished and needs to go ASAP.  We urgently need someone to steady the ship, look as though they are in charge, and exude an air of calm reassurance.  Addressing the nation would also be a good idea, if only to try to nip this sort of thing in the bud before it gets any worse: http://salfordonline.com/26927-watch-horrific-racist-abuse-teenagers-tram.html

[CllrGeoffAbell]

Volatile times indeed.  Not only did Leave not expect to win, they haven't got a coherent line now on trade, immigration or the sovereignty of the UK.

And not only are the minnows doing well in football, but the smaller parties don't seem to be the ones shaking themselves apart in these turbulent times.  Hence the fact their voice is heard less by national media.  With the possible exception of the SNP.

Who would Marple want to see as Tory leader and PM?  My money is on a comparative outsider.

[simonesaffron]

We must talk to different people!

That's very probably true, Condate.