EU Referendum

[CllrGeoffAbell]

The EU as an organisation is one of the biggest threats to peace in Europe at the present day.

That's why we've had so many wars?

Exactly right condate, ordinary people are now turning to extreme parties in the EU,.... only a break up of the EU and restoration of sovereign national governments can stop this.

Only the restoration of national borders can break up nationalistic causes?


Is it nice in your parallel universe?

[hatter76]

It may well be that the present governments of the other member nations will be angry and upset by Britain leaving, but the same cannot be said for the people of the rest of the EU, who see it as a sign of hope. If anything will  give succour to the newly ascendant ultra right wing parties, it is the continuance of the EU. It is the EU which causes the rise of extreme nationalism and dissolving it will take away much of the reasons for the support of such parties.

Exactly right condate, ordinary people are now turning to extreme parties in the EU, it is their only hope of escaping the disastrous economic conditions created by the Euro and getting power back from the unelected commission. This is deeply worrying and dangerous, only a break up of the EU and restoration of sovereign national governments can stop this. In Austria a far right candidate was almost elected in Austria as president last week, we have LePens national front in France leading in the opinion polls. People need to wake up.

Watched the TV debate tonight. Telling that Cameron refused to debate Farage direct.

[Condate]

Dream on, Condate!  Although Brexit would (will?) send huge political and economic shock waves through the EU and around the world, it won't lead to the complete disappearance without trace of the EU - the political will for it to survive is much too strong for that.

What I think we will see is the remaining EU counties closing ranks against us - they will be angry and upset, so that's hardly surprising.  We won't be more prosperous, certainly not in the short term, after the collapse in the value of sterling.  Neither will Europe be more stable.  On the contrary, apart from pleasing Nigel Farage, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and ISIS, our exit will also give succour to the newly ascendant ultra right wing parties such as AfD in Germany and the Law and Justice Party in Poland.

It may well be that the present governments of the other member nations will be angry and upset by Britain leaving, but the same cannot be said for the people of the rest of the EU, who see it as a sign of hope. If anything will  give succour to the newly ascendant ultra right wing parties, it is the continuance of the EU. It is the EU which causes the rise of extreme nationalism and dissolving it will take away much of the reasons for the support of such parties.

[Condate]

Fanciful thinking. The EU as an organisation has kept the peace in Europe and brought forward important legislation to protect the environment and further workers' rights though it has more to do in the latter department.  We should not be playing fast and loose with our children's futures.

The EU as an organisation is one of the biggest threats to peace in Europe at the present day. We should indeed not risk the future of Britain and Europe's children by perpetuating an organisation which will either break up peacefully following Britain leaving, or will tear itself apart in conflict if it tries to carry on with or without Britain.

[CllrGeoffAbell]

I hear time and again "What's in it for Britain (or England)?"

So I ask 2 questions:

1) Is Britain and the British government fundamentally superior to all other nations in all ways?

2) Do you see the world a safer place if plucky (but rich) Britain (or England) "goes it alone"?

I fundamentally still don't get why, in a more integrated world and a UK which is handing some spending power to a devolved Manchester but most power is still at number 10, why people want to cut ourselves off from our nearest neighbour.  And a Tory government, may I add, that got 37% of the people bothered to vote in 2015.

US isolationism in the 30s did not work - for them or the rest of the world.  And it wouldn't work for us.

[Dave]

This is the same calculation that is being made by remains economists. But it is too simplistic a model to be realistic, it does not account for the freeing effect of red tape and bureaucracy on the 97.6% of the economy that is burdened unnecessarily by EU rules. Also the 2.4% will still continue subject to new free trade agreements.

Sorry hatter, but given a choice between believing, on the one hand, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Oxford Economics, and the LSE, and on the other hand, hatter76, I know who I'll go for! 

Yes I think Cameron has been so damaged by his part in the remain campaign that he will face a leadership challenge but I don't think that Johnson will be the winner, they will need a uniting figure.

You can say that again!  Who might that be?  Maybe that's why Teresa May is keeping so quiet.......

[tonysheldon]

Who wants to insulate us from Europe? Certainly not a large percentage of those of us voting to leave the EU. Leaving will not unravel Europe, although I hope it will unravel the EU. The EU is not Europe. The two are completely different. The end of the EU is the beginning of a better, more stable, more prosperous Europe in which Britain should and will play an important role.

Fanciful thinking. The EU as an organisation has kept the peace in Europe and brought forward important legislation to protect the environment and further workers' rights though it has more to do in the latter department.  We should not be playing fast and loose with our children's futures.

[marpleexile]

I think hatter is dead right here.  And for the same reasons, big business in the UK will be equally forceful in insisting that we remain part of the European Economic Area,  like Norway and Iceland.  So Prime Minister Johnson will be forced to take the UK into the EEA, meaning we will continue to make a significant contribution to the EU budget, as Norway and Iceland do, and we will be required to allow the free movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK.   In other words, the only significant difference between being in the EU and being in the EEA is that we will no longer have any say in drawing up the rules. 

Of course the EU will still want to trade with us, the question is on what terms.

Even the Leave campaign now accepts that this figure is a gross misrepresentation - and that's putting it politely!  We get about half of that back, in the rebate which Thatcher negotiated all those years ago, and in grants and subsidies to agriculture and business.  Our net contribution to the EU is about £8 billion per year. 

Lets not kid ourselves, that 8 billion would not go back into the treasury pot to be spent on services, it would be used to fund tax cuts for Tory party donors and key Tory voter demographics.

[hatter76]

I think hatter is dead right here.  And for the same reasons, big business in the UK will be equally forceful in insisting that we remain part of the European Economic Area,  like Norway and Iceland.  So Prime Minister Johnson will be forced to take the UK into the EEA, meaning we will continue to make a significant contribution to the EU budget, as Norway and Iceland do, and we will be required to allow the free movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK.   In other words, the only significant difference between being in the EU and being in the EEA is that we will no longer have any say in drawing up the rules. 

Even the Leave campaign now accepts that this figure is a gross misrepresentation - and that's putting it politely!  We get about half of that back, in the rebate which Thatcher negotiated all those years ago, and in grants and subsidies to agriculture and business.  Our net contribution to the EU is about £8 billion per year. 

Indeed.  So as the UK's annual GDP is £1.7 trillion, 2.4% of GDP adds up to a cool £40 billion!  So if we leave , we face losing £40 billion a year in order to save £8 billion. 

This is the same calculation that is being made by remains economists. But it is too simplistic a model to be realistic, it does not account for the freeing effect of red tape and bureaucracy on the 97.6% of the economy that is burdened unnecessarily by EU rules. Also the 2.4% will still continue subject to new free trade agreements.

I don't necessary agree that we will have to join the European Trade Area, we will be in strong position to negotiate our own deal because of the balance of trade deficit.

If MPs don't respect the mandate of the people they will be create a constitutional crisis, let's remember this was a manifesto pledge by the Conservatives which was influential in reducing the UKIP vote and winning the election for Cameron. They also voted to set the referendum up, to go against the people would be a political disaster breaking any link of legitimacy.

In the event of a leave vote I fully expect the EU to come back with a better offer probably around the free movement of people. They have previous form of doing this with the Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum. There will then be a second referendum.

Yes I think Cameron has been so damaged by his part in the remain campaign that he will face a leadership challenge but I don't think that Johnson will be the winner, they will need a uniting figure.

[Dave]

I am completely unconvinced by Dave's point that they would be unwilling to trade with us. Believe me the pressure on Germany's Chancellor from BMW, VW etc. to establish a free trade agreement with us will be tremendous, we are still the 5th richest nation on earth. The same goes for pressure from French car manufacturers and wine growers or holiday businesses in Spain. We run huge trade deficits with France and Germany so it is very much in their interest for trade to continue.

I think hatter is dead right here.  And for the same reasons, big business in the UK will be equally forceful in insisting that we remain part of the European Economic Area,  like Norway and Iceland.  So Prime Minister Johnson will be forced to take the UK into the EEA, meaning we will continue to make a significant contribution to the EU budget, as Norway and Iceland do, and we will be required to allow the free movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK.   In other words, the only significant difference between being in the EU and being in the EEA is that we will no longer have any say in drawing up the rules. 

Let's not forget we spend £16bn a year on EU membership and only get a small fraction back.

Even the Leave campaign now accepts that this figure is a gross misrepresentation - and that's putting it politely!  We get about half of that back, in the rebate which Thatcher negotiated all those years ago, and in grants and subsidies to agriculture and business.  Our net contribution to the EU is about £8 billion per year. 

In terms of the EUs own figures, the single market only adds 2.4% to national GDP across the EU.

Indeed.  So as the UK's annual GDP is £1.7 trillion, 2.4% of GDP adds up to a cool £40 billion!  So if we leave , we face losing £40 billion a year in order to save £8 billion. 

I've got a horrible feeling that it could happen.  But if it does, it could get extremely messy after that.  Take the two year period in which the terms of our exit will be negotiated.  Prime Minister Johnson will be personally committed to those, but at least two thirds of the MPs in the House of Commons are 'Remainers', so they will make it very difficult for him.   And to anyone who says 'the people have spoken and Parliament must respect their wishes', every MP but one (Douglas Carswell, Clacton) will turn round to their constituents and remind them they they elected him/her on a party manifesto which stated a clear commitment to remain in the EU.

What a mess.  And who got us into it?  D Cameron. 

[hatter76]

That's the thing, the analogy of it being a divorce is accurate. The Leave campaign are trying to make out that it will be a cordial divorce, with both sides coming out happy with the settlement - they are wrong, the rest of the EU will want to screw us over (like an abusive Ex), if for no other reason than so they have an example to hold up to any other member states who think about leaving, to show what happens if you dare to leave.

The stay campaign are definitely scaremongering, but the problem is, I don't think they are wrong.

Let's just get a few things straight. The vast majority of SMEs in The UK do not trade in the single market but they are burdened by the excessive red tape that is demanded by the EU. Leaving would free them up to operate more freely and productively.

In terms of the EUs own figures, the single market only adds 2.4% to national GDP across the EU.  Although significant it only represents a small amount that can easily be compensated with freer terms of trade as described above.

I am completely unconvinced by Dave's point that they would be unwilling to trade with us. Believe me the pressure on Germany's Chancellor from BMW, VW etc. to establish a free trade agreement with us will be tremendous, we are still the 5th richest nation on earth. The same goes for pressure from French car manufacturers and wine growers or holiday businesses in Spain. We run huge trade deficits with France and Germany so it is very much in their interest for trade to continue.

Let's not forget we spend £16bn a year on EU membership and only get a small fraction back. Spending 100% of this figure at home will also generate further growth to the UK economy by reducing leakage from the economy.

[marpleexile]

What I think we will see is the remaining EU counties closing ranks against us - they will be angry and upset, so that's hardly surprising.  We won't be more prosperous, certainly not in the short term, after the collapse in the value of sterling. 

That's the thing, the analogy of it being a divorce is accurate. The Leave campaign are trying to make out that it will be a cordial divorce, with both sides coming out happy with the settlement - they are wrong, the rest of the EU will want to screw us over (like an abusive Ex), if for no other reason than so they have an example to hold up to any other member states who think about leaving, to show what happens if you dare to leave.

The stay campaign are definitely scaremongering, but the problem is, I don't think they are wrong.

[Dave]

The end of the EU is the beginning of a better, more stable, more prosperous Europe in which Britain should and will play an important role.

Dream on, Condate!  Although Brexit would (will?) send huge political and economic shock waves through the EU and around the world, it won't lead to the complete disappearance without trace of the EU - the political will for it to survive is much too strong for that.

What I think we will see is the remaining EU counties closing ranks against us - they will be angry and upset, so that's hardly surprising.  We won't be more prosperous, certainly not in the short term, after the collapse in the value of sterling.  Neither will Europe be more stable.  On the contrary, apart from pleasing Nigel Farage, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and ISIS, our exit will also give succour to the newly ascendant ultra right wing parties such as AfD in Germany and the Law and Justice Party in Poland.

[Condate]

I do not see how leaving helps Europe or indeed, ourselves.  We cannot insulate ourselves from Europe, but we can be at the top table debating and working towards solutions. Withdrawing will start to unravel Europe and that is not in our national interest.

Who wants to insulate us from Europe? Certainly not a large percentage of those of us voting to leave the EU. Leaving will not unravel Europe, although I hope it will unravel the EU. The EU is not Europe. The two are completely different. The end of the EU is the beginning of a better, more stable, more prosperous Europe in which Britain should and will play an important role.

[Dave]

I'm afraid I agree. The more young people see Tories in suits lying and slagging one another off, the less likely they are to vote, and the UK ends up taking the Great Leap in the Dark.

What we need is to involve more people whom the young relate to.  Where's that Russell Brand when you need him!

I'm even starting to feel sorry for David Cameron.  He called the referendum as a way of holding his party together (ha ha).  It is, of course, spectacularly failing to do that. As a result, his legacy could be the ignominious exit of the UK from the EU, followed shortly by the break up of the 300-year-old UK, when the Scots hold another referendum and vote to leave the UK and stay in the EU.