EU Referendum

[Condate]

A wise and thoughtful post, mikes.  So many good points in it, but this is a key one which is not mentioned nearly enough:
Nearly all of the national debate revolves narrowly around what is best for the UK.  Rarely does anyone mention what might be best for the EU.  But if we leave, the EU will still be there, and whatever happens there will profoundly affect us, whether we are members or not. 

I have been saying for ages that it is the future of Europe which is important. I agree however that neither side has stressed this enough. If we leave, Europe will still be there, but whether the EU remains for long is another matter. There are a great many people throughout the EU who are looking with hope at the UK, with the ardent desire that our leaving will help bring about the end of the EU and allow a peaceful, stable and prosperous Europe to develop. The EU is one of the greatest threats to Europe. It is at least partially the cause of the rise of extremist parties and will become a threat to peace and security in Europe before long. I believe that anyone who consider themselves a good European (and I do), should vote to leave, not only for the good of the UK, but for the good of the whole of Europe.

I think the whole argument should not be about the UK in, or out of the EU. It needs to be a Europe wide (and it don't just mean the EU states) discussion about how to achieve a stable, peaceful, prosperous and civilised Europe and I do not believe the EU can be part of that.

[Dave]

A wise and thoughtful post, mikes.  So many good points in it, but this is a key one which is not mentioned nearly enough:

we will have a badly wounded EU on our doorstep

Nearly all of the national debate revolves narrowly around what is best for the UK.  Rarely does anyone mention what might be best for the EU.  But if we leave, the EU will still be there, and whatever happens there will profoundly affect us, whether we are members or not. 

We live in uncertain times.  The rise of extremist parties in Germany, Poland, Spain and France and elsewhere, combined with the ongoing Euro crisis and the flow of refugees and other migrants from the middle East and Africa, are massive problems which will not be solved by our departure.  On the contrary, if anything we will just be making them worse!

Virtually every country in the world (apart from Russia, of course, which has its own agenda) is worried about the destabilising effect on peace and security that Brexit would have.  We are a force for good in the EU, and our presence is sorely needed.  We should not forget that.

[mikes]

The EU Debate - in or out?

I have been thinking long and hard about the most contentious and far reaching problem of recent times, whether to vote in or out of the EU next week.

It boils down to this: do we trust our politicians to act in our country’s interests or their own. 

For sure the EU is far from perfect.  It is run by an unelected elite who are scamming as many perquisites from the EU system as they can get away with.  The level of bureaucracy is mindboggling, sclerotic, wasteful and often to the detriment of small firms and individuals.  The Euro has been a disaster for the weaker and poorer countries.  But the EU has also been a force for good in many areas of economics, security, open markets and freedom of movement (within the EU).  And so on – we’ve all heard the arguments from both sides, though many of them are full of hyperbole and lack clarity.  It is clear that nobody knows for sure what will happen if we stay and are even less sure of what will happen if we leave.

But our own government is just as bad and often run by incompetent law makers whose morals and allegiance are questionable.  Do we really trust them to act in the best interests of the UK in the event of a Brexit?  If this happens we will have a badly wounded EU on our doorstep who will do everything they can to make our life difficult and we will have no say in how it is run.  At the moment we have a divided Tory government who has no effective opposition run by a bunch of slippery characters who could run amok with our long held traditions and beliefs.  Now is not the time to leave. 

Democracy is not perfect but it is a lot better than any of the alternatives on offer at the moment.  There are just too many unknowns to risk a Brexit.  I think that it will affect the younger generation far more than us older people.

I’d rather be the “pebble in the shoe” or “the sand in the eye” of the EU from the inside than have things done to us that we have little or no ability to control.  We need to make the EU more accountable and we should work with the other members to ensure that the EU meets the demands of its members rather than the people who run it.  I am of the view that it will possible to have another referendum in ten or fifteen years.  If the EU hasn’t changed radically by then that will be the time to leave, along with many other Eurosceptic countries.  If we leave now we will be creating far more problems for us and the EU.  Now is not the time to turn our back on the EU only 20 miles from our shores.  There will not be an option to go back if we find life difficult on the outside.  A close vote in the UK, which looks very likely, should give the EU cause to rethink some of their more radical ideas knowing full well that if the UK is not happy the chances are that we could leave and cause them even more problems than they have now.

[Dave]

If this were true, why haven't Norway and Switzerland - who are both members of the EEA - not gone ahead and signed up for the EU to have their say?

It's a good question!  Not 100% sure of the answer, but as far as I know the reason that the people of Norway have twice voted in referendums not to to join the EU (so Norway has never been a member) is partly to do with fishing.  Also, Noway has got a lot of equality laws and a strong welfare state, and there may be a feeling that EU membership might compromise that.  But they are out, and will stay out, I think, for some years.

Switzerland is different.  It is not actually in the EEA, but it does have its own trade agreement with the EU, and adopts the EU laws and regulations which are necessary in order to maintain that agreement.  It is not in the EU because it has a long and jealously guarded history of neutrality. 

This is a useful link:  https://fullfact.org/europe/norway-switzerland-eu-laws/

[Melancholyflower]

.... what hatter and the other Brexiteers need to get their minds around is the near certainty that after Brexit, the UK will choose to become part of the European Economic Area, because big business (which funds the Tory party) will insist on it.  We will therefore continue to be subject to all the social market regulations, anti-discrimination regulations, employment rights legislation, and freedom of movement of EU citizens, as we are at the moment.  We just won't have any say in them any longer! 

If this were true, why haven't Norway and Switzerland - who are both members of the EEA - not gone ahead and signed up for the EU to have their say?

The answer is that not all of the regulations are compulsory.  Switzerland have not "subjected themselves" to any of them in a domestic sense. Yes, they must adhere to EU regulations when selling to the EU, but that's different to subjecting your people to judgements from EU courts for example. Therefore they still retain a much greater self-sovereignty.

[tonysheldon]

This referendum is only taking place due to a Tory attempt to outflank UKIP.  Now it is looking like we're heading for the exit. The prospect of a Farage/Johnston/Gove- led Britain fills me with dread.

[Dave]

for a substantial number of people (ie a number many times greater than the winning margin will be) this is solely about immigration, and they will cast their vote based on immigration.

Unfortunately a perfectly rational colleague who lives in Bolton is going to vote Brexit entirely on the basis of the effects of immigration on that town. If you believe that people are going to make this decision based on a detailed review of all the issues then you are totally misguided. A huge proportion are being swayed by the Union Jack (irony) waving, knee jerk, pull up the drawbridge nonsense being pedalled by London centric power cravers.

I'm afraid marpleexile and Belly are absolutely right.  And the shameless lie of the Leave campaign's cynical telly broadcast (see above), presenting the issue as a binary choice between the EU and the NHS, is just breathtaking.

But the fact is, some people - especially the elderly, perhaps - will believe it! 

As for this: 

The British people have never given politicians a mandate to remove the powers from London in the first place.

.... what hatter and the other Brexiteers need to get their minds around is the near certainty that after Brexit, the UK will choose to become part of the European Economic Area, because big business (which funds the Tory party) will insist on it.  We will therefore continue to be subject to all the social market regulations, anti-discrimination regulations, employment rights legislation, and freedom of movement of EU citizens, as we are at the moment.  We just won't have any say in them any longer! 

We've got two weeks left in which we desperately need the good folk of the UK to wake up to the fact that we are being used as pawns in a power struggle between two Old Etonians. 

I'm hoping for the best, but I'm afraid I'm fearing the worst! 

[hatter76]

London centric power cravers.

The British people have never given politicians a mandate to remove the powers from London in the first place. The original referendum was for a common market, not a political super state with its own flag and national anthem.

All the EU is doing is replacing a democratically elected Westminster government with an unelected Brussels  Commission based around power by the elite.

[Belly]

Unfortunately a perfectly rational colleague who lives in Bolton is going to vote Brexit entirely on the basis of the effects of immigration on that town. If you believe that people are going to make this decision based on a detailed review of all the issues then you are totally misguided. A huge proportion are being swayed by the Union Jack (irony) waving, knee jerk, pull up the drawbridge nonsense being pedalled by London centric power cravers.

But that's the problem with leaving a decision of this magnitude to the jibbering masses via a referendum - as you say, immigration is only a minor part of a wider argument for and against remaining in the EU, but for a substantial number of people (ie a number many times greater than the winning margin will be) this is solely about immigration, and they will cast their vote based on immigration.

[andy+kirsty]

Turned on Channel 5 this evening to watch the test match highlights, and saw this:



I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.......

Her first mistake was clogging up A&E when she only had a cough - she should have gone to the pharmacy or GP.




 

[Dave]

Turned on Channel 5 this evening to watch the test match highlights, and saw this:



I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.......

[marpleexile]

This is of course nothing like the actual arguments for leaving the EU. While there are some people who consider immigration from the EU to be a major issue, it is in fact a fairly minor one. If Britain leaves the EU, or the EU is dissolved, I would not expect or want much change to the current rules.  The issues surrounding the question of sovereignty and what the EU thinks it is and where it is going are the real questions.

But that's the problem with leaving a decision of this magnitude to the jibbering masses via a referendum - as you say, immigration is only a minor part of a wider argument for and against remaining in the EU, but for a substantial number of people (ie a number many times greater than the winning margin will be) this is solely about immigration, and they will cast their vote based on immigration.

[Condate]

Yes, truly bizarre! 

Back in the real world, it seems to me that the argument for leaving the EU can be boiled down to this:

1.   People come to the UK to find jobs, because our economy is the most successful and dynamic in Europe.

2.   We don't want them here.

3.   So we'll trash the economy.

4.   Er.....

5.  That's it.

This is of course nothing like the actual arguments for leaving the EU. While there are some people who consider immigration from the EU to be a major issue, it is in fact a fairly minor one. If Britain leaves the EU, or the EU is dissolved, I would not expect or want much change to the current rules.  The issues surrounding the question of sovereignty and what the EU thinks it is and where it is going are the real questions.

[Dave]

Only the restoration of national borders can break up nationalistic causes?


Is it nice in your parallel universe?

Yes, truly bizarre! 

Back in the real world, it seems to me that the argument for leaving the EU can be boiled down to this:

1.   People come to the UK to find jobs, because our economy is the most successful and dynamic in Europe.

2.   We don't want them here.

3.   So we'll trash the economy.

4.   Er.....

5.  That's it.   

[Condate]

That's why we've had so many wars?

We will have, unfortunately, if the EU persists. More internal conflicts and violent uprisings than wars between states.

Only the restoration of national borders can break up nationalistic causes?

Yes. By removing many of the factors which lead to support for extreme nationalistic causes. One of the main reasons (although not the only reason) extreme nationalist parties do well, is the feeling among the electorate across the EU that there is no other way to stop the process of further political integration. Once the EU no longer exists, that reason for support for extremists will disappear. Extremist parties will not go away, but their support will greatly diminish.



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