EU Referendum

[Hoffnung]

I am currently in 'failing' EUrope, have been here for 3 weeks. Been in 4 different countries. Same old thing in all of them. Most drinkable wine for a couple of euro. Delicious food for the same. People treating each  other with respect. Children playing outside with smiles on their faces. No dog muck on the streets, no litter,they even have helpful courteous bus drivers- boy, have they got wrong!

EUrope is about people, way of life, not politician's grievances , laws and sovereign claims.

If I didn't have family commitments, l'd move here tomorrow. Most parts of it are more agreeable GB than. We should be trying to make ourselves more like it not distancing ourselves from it.

[CllrGeoffAbell]

The notion that Britain 'could' become the most hated nation also somehow implies that they are really valued inside the EU at the moment. Are we? are we really? Evidence please...

Many countries want the UK to stay and said so, whilst still trying to stand clear of influencing this vote.  Merkel inclused
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14533304.Merkel_intervenes_in_EU_debate__saying_she_hopes_Britain_will_stay/ 

The leaders of this country should still play a pivotal role in shaping the future of this continent, not stand on the sidelines and be increasingly irrelevant.
The EU is good for us and we are good for it.  I can give evidence for this too.

I don't want to turn the clock back - I want a peaceful and strong land for my children for years to come.

[hatter76]

The notion that Britain 'could' become the most hated nation also somehow implies that they are really valued inside the EU at the moment. Are we? are we really? Evidence please...

Of course were valued, we pay the EU £16bn a year to fund the common agricultural policy, development projects and unelected commission. We also run a massive trade deficit some £70bn a year with the other EU nations. How will they cope if we stop bankrolling them!

The remain camp are left with stupid playground name calling and ever more far fetched predictions. They have nothing to offer, just more integration and the dream of the European superstate.

[Melancholyflower]

So wise military historians are now predicting the future are they? Of course not. He's qualified it ever so slightly with words such as 'if' and 'could'.

Really, the notion that a brexit will somehow inevitably lead to a European war is ludicrous, and if anyone is scaremongering here it is those on the Remain side. Check NATO out!  It's an organisation which was designed specifically to prevent aggression against single states by having them form an alliance. Oh and it was formed almost 70 years ago too. Funnily enough it's worked pretty well, and several previous members of the Warsaw Pact have signed up to it since the Berlin Wall came down. In fact if we're going to get historical, its articles of mutual response have only ever been triggered once and that was 9/11. Not bad.

The notion that Britain 'could' become the most hated nation also somehow implies that they are really valued inside the EU at the moment. Are we? are we really? Evidence please...

[mikes]

Since writing the above post I read this over lunch:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-make-britain-worlds-most-hated-nation

It ends like this: 

"The EU’s flaws do not justify its destruction. Alliances are fragile entities. They take time to create and are always vulnerable to vicious circles of suspicion and resentment. Whatever we might think of the EU – whether we love it or loathe it – one thing is certain. If Britain pulls out and thus provokes or accelerates its disintegration, we will instantly achieve most-hated nation status, not just in Europe but far beyond. It could well turn into the worst example in history of cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Wise words from a very distinguished military historian.

Or it could be seen as taking the first move that other countries have been too scared to take.  I can easily see UK, Germany, Holland and the Scandanavian countries forming an informal alliance for trade.  Whether France joins is anybodies guess.  First mover advantage is generally the best position to be in militarily and economically.

[Dave]

Since writing the above post I read this over lunch:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-make-britain-worlds-most-hated-nation

It ends like this: 

"The EU’s flaws do not justify its destruction. Alliances are fragile entities. They take time to create and are always vulnerable to vicious circles of suspicion and resentment. Whatever we might think of the EU – whether we love it or loathe it – one thing is certain. If Britain pulls out and thus provokes or accelerates its disintegration, we will instantly achieve most-hated nation status, not just in Europe but far beyond. It could well turn into the worst example in history of cutting off your nose to spite your face."

Wise words from a very distinguished military historian. 

[Dave]

So if EU good, why need the opt outs?

No-one has said 'EU good' - it's just not that simple!  It has a whole load of problems, notably with the euro, and with refugees and other migrants.  But Brexit will not solve any of them, and because it will significantly weaken the EU, it is more likely to make them worse.  And a weaker EU with worse problems is definitely not what we want on our doorstep!  But Vladimir Putin would be delighted, of course.,..

The EU has kept the peace for 70 years, and we disregard that at our peril.  Yes, it needs reform, but it will get reform, because (although we little-Englanders don't notice!) euro-scepticism is widespread throughout the EU, largely aimed at the bureaucrats of the EU Commission.  Opinion polls in France show that a greater % of the French population are anti EU than the British.  See http://www.thelocal.fr/20160330/france-home-to-more-eurosceptics-than-the-uk

But we need to have a say in the way the EU is reformed, because it will still be there, 20 miles away, and everything that happens in it will affect us. 

I'm afraid we seem to be having a national collective Moment of Madness, and I fear for the consequences.  Worrying times......

[CllrGeoffAbell]

So if EU good, why need the opt outs?  If Opt outs are good, then surely fully indepent but negotiating individually even better.

It's called negotiation and consensus.  I may not always agree with your colleagues in the council chamber, but I am not threatening to pull out of the town hall!

I was also worried about the lies Leave were peddling about Turkey and how much it all costs.  There has been too much speculation, but these were just lies.  I am very glad your party leader called it too in the debate last night.

As someone said this morning, "Take our country back?  I'd rather move it forward!"

[JohnBates]

We negotiated a whole load of opt-outs over the years.

So if EU good, why need the opt outs?  If Opt outs are good, then surely fully indepent but negotiating individually even better.

[CllrGeoffAbell]

I’d rather be the “pebble in the shoe” or “the sand in the eye” of the EU from the inside than have things done to us that we have little or no ability to control. 

I quite like this point.  Although the UK is seen as the awkward man of the EU by some, it also keeps others on their toes.  We negotiated a whole load of opt-outs over the years.

With 28 nations, it's very difficult to get agreement (in Westminster, the government mostly just needs to ensure it's back-bench rebels are brought to heel).  Certainly, as far as Turkey is concerned, there are too many who would veto their accession - Germany (big Turkish migrants already from when they'd accept anyone who could say "Asyl" ("asylum")) along with Greece and Cyprus.

I suspect I am going to depress everyone who's had of this referendum by saying I suspect it'll be a close result and this won't be the end of it. Even if we vote to stay friends with our EU neighbours, there will be another referendum with the next treaty change.

And if we pull out of the EU but stay in the EFTA, will it make much difference?

Lisbon Treaty

From the BBC Reality Check
Article 42 of the Lisbon Treaty states that what it calls "a common defence" would require unanimity in the European Council. In other words, Britain could veto it. It goes on to say that any such decision would be taken in accordance with the constitutional requirements of member states. That would mean ratification in national parliaments and it could trigger the UK's European Union Act 2011, which would mean a referendum before any powers could be transferred.

Ironically Lisbon also provided the mechanism for leaving the EU!


I for one think the majority of EU decisions are for the good of all.  But actually (apart from finance) there have not been many major decisions made that affect the average Brit in a big way.

[hatter76]

No, it means what it says - it could hardly be clearer.  The Treaty of Rome was nearly 60 years ago - quite a lot has happened since then.

This sort of thing is a good example of the desperate weakness of the case for Brexit - fabricated 'project fear' threats (other classic examples are the EU army - which will never happen - and Turkey joining the EU, which might happen in a few decades time - maybe!).

It a long term project Dave.
EU army is in the Lisbon treaty, Turkey has received funding and support and has started the process to join. Project fear is the remain side with constant doomsday predictions.

Cameron went to Brussels demanding a great deal for Britain. What did he get? A worthless bit of paper that will be discarded. Its widely regarded that he got nothing of significance.

[Dave]

No, it means what it says - it could hardly be clearer.  The Treaty of Rome was nearly 60 years ago - quite a lot has happened since then.

This sort of thing is a good example of the desperate weakness of the case for Brexit - fabricated 'project fear' threats (other classic examples are the EU army - which will never happen - and Turkey joining the EU, which might happen in a few decades time - maybe!).

[hatter76]

Wrong.  This is the official EU statement at the conclusion of the UK government's negotiatons with the EU earlier this year:

"It is recognised that the United Kingdom, in the light of the specific situation it has under the Treaties, is not committed to further political integration into the European Union. The substance of this will be incorporated into the Treaties at the time of their next revision in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties and the respective constitutional requirements of the Member States, so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom."

The previous treaties such as Rome do commit us to this, this is a little something that will be quietly forgotten at some point when the referendum is over. Just like Ireland being given an exemption from the EU army clause of the Lisbon treaty. At best it represents a pause not a change in direction.

[Dave]

the EU is an ever closer political union....... Cameron has and tried and failed to get concessions from them, they have shown no willingness to reform or change.

Wrong.  This is the official EU statement at the conclusion of the UK government's negotiatons with the EU earlier this year:

"It is recognised that the United Kingdom, in the light of the specific situation it has under the Treaties, is not committed to further political integration into the European Union. The substance of this will be incorporated into the Treaties at the time of their next revision in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties and the respective constitutional requirements of the Member States, so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom."

This, however, is very true: 

the referendum process has been so damaging to the Prime Minister

Indeed.  In fact, I think that if we vote to leave, calling for the referendum will for ever be seen as the fatal mistake which brought Cameron's downfall, and for which he will always be remembered.  A bit like Blair's Iraq. 

[hatter76]

I’d rather be the “pebble in the shoe” or “the sand in the eye” of the EU from the inside than have things done to us that we have little or no ability to control.  We need to make the EU more accountable and we should work with the other members to ensure that the EU meets the demands of its members rather than the people who run it.  I am of the view that it will possible to have another referendum in ten or fifteen years.  If the EU hasn’t changed radically by then that will be the time to leave, along with many other Eurosceptic countries.  If we leave now we will be creating far more problems for us and the EU.  Now is not the time to turn our back on the EU only 20 miles from our shores.  There will not be an option to go back if we find life difficult on the outside.  A close vote in the UK, which looks very likely, should give the EU cause to rethink some of their more radical ideas knowing full well that if the UK is not happy the chances are that we could leave and cause them even more problems than they have now.

A thoughtful post mikes but I think it is unrealistic to assume 1 that we will get another chance to leave the EU in 10 years time and 2 that we can influence the EU from voting to remain.

In relation to point 1, the referendum process has been so damaging to the Prime Minister I doubt that a future leader would ever willingly go through this again. We now have an act that says that future treaty change must go to referendum, but this can be changed by a future government. Even if it isn't revoked we may get a future vote on a specific treaty but not an in out ballot. I firmly believe that this is our only chance to say no.

Point 2, the EU is an ever closer political union. If it encounters issues it just delays the progression until issues have been sorted and when the time is right brings forward new legislation. A remain vote even by 50.1% will be seen by the EU and receiving a clear mandate to continue its ever closer union. Cameron has and tried and failed to get concessions from them, they have shown no willingness to reform or change. They will never change, its accept it or leave.