EU Referendum

[Dave]

If Melancholy is referring to our 8 billion a year net contribution to the EU budget, that is trivial and irrelevant. The impact of Brexit on the UK economy is conservatively projected by most economists to be a reduction of around 2.5% in UK GDP.  That's about 40 billion a year. And the negative effect is expected to spread across already weak EU economies.

The other reason that all other EU countries except France want us to remain is that we are widely seen (despite everything!) as being agents for change in the EU. There is a real appetite for reform throughout almost all EU countries.  But Brexit is seen by many as the beginning of a domino effect in which other countries would follow suit, even leading to the complete collapse of the organisation that has ensured 70 years of peace and prosperity in Western Europe. Madness!

[Melancholyflower]

No shortage of that, melancholy!  Try this: http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/17/what-do-europeans-think-of-the-uk-s-brexit-referendum/

The majority view across Europe is that the EU is crying out for reform, and they want us to stay part of it in order to be a key partner in that.  People see that if we leave it could be the beginning of EU disintegration, which nobody in their right mind would want.

All I see on your link Dave is people saying it would be bad if the UK left. There's no mention of why, or how, we are valued within the EU which was my original point. So perhaps one could assume from this that it is because we offer more than we get out of it financially.

[JohnBates]

because we will join the European Economic Area.  That is a certainty because Big Business, which funds the Tory party, will insist on it.  And EEA countries have to contribute to the EU budget.
Countries that are in the EEA are required to comply with the same regulations on employment etc that we are now.  They just don't have any say in them. 
No we won't because free movement of people is required of countries that are part of the EEA.

That's true.  Remain or leave, these are uncertain times. 

You think we will join EEA, but it is not certain, it is a possibility. If we join EEA that may be a staging post and we may leave that later. No certainties

[Dave]

There are only 3 certainties if out.
1) we will save money on EU contributions.

No we won't, because we will join the European Economic Area.  That is a certainty because Big Business, which funds the Tory party, will insist on it.  And EEA countries have to contribute to the EU budget.

2) we will no longer be ruled from Brussels.

Countries that are in the EEA are required to comply with the same regulations on employment etc that we are now.  They just don't have any say in them. 

3) we will be able to control immigration.

No we won't because free movement of people is required of countries that are part of the EEA.

There are no certainties with remain.

That's true.  Remain or leave, these are uncertain times. 

[JohnBates]

There are only 3 certainties if out.
1) we will save money on EU contributions.
2) we will no longer be ruled from Brussels.
3) we will be able to control immigration.
There are no certainties with remain.
Everything else in or out is pure conjecture as no one knows.   

We basically are left with what we belive is possible and desirable to happen, but nothing more definate.

[Dave]

Sadly, history tells us there is no limit to the depths to which the Mail will sink.  Remember its support for Adolf Hitler in the 1930s, backed up with virulent opposition to admitting Jewish refugees to the UK.  It's a disgusting paper, and why so many apparently respectable people read it is a mystery.

You need to find another island Hoffnung - you are keeping dodgy company!  ;-)

[Hoffnung]

On the subject of the Daily Mail, I'm currently on a Spanish island where the only choice of English newspapers is that one.

So, I've got no choice. It is a paper that up until now I have been in ignorance of.

 The only thing I can think of saying after reading it,  is that it is Unbelievable! How can this diatribe be the second bestselling newspaper in the U.K.?

[marpleexile]

Forget it - it's dead in the water!  The failure of the euro, exemplified by the unresolved Greek financial crisis, along with rampant euro-scepticism across the continent, has finished 'ever closer union'.   It now exists only in the fevered imagination of the Daily Mail!

A United States of Europe was never ever going to happen anyway.

Whilst Brussels bureaucrats may have been in favour, there's no way that self interested national politicians would have allowed it. UK (and German, and French, and Dutch, etc, etc) MPs don't mind Brussels making rules on how straight bananas have to be* because frankly that stuff is just boring and not "sexy", but there's no way enough of them would ever be prepared to give up their influence on the "big ticket" items.

* I know, I know, used for comedy effect.

[Dave]

The momentum is always forward towards a United States of Europe.

Forget it - it's dead in the water!  The failure of the euro, exemplified by the unresolved Greek financial crisis, along with rampant euro-scepticism across the continent, has finished 'ever closer union'.   It now exists only in the fevered imagination of the Daily Mail! 

[hatter76]

I do not believe that the EU will ever change, it is impossible to reform it. Name me one occasion where the EU has given powers back to nation governments?

The momentum is always forward towards a United States of Europe.

The EU only pauses and waits for people to change, its always gradual, its aims span generations.

It is completely false to assume that we will be able to get off the EU bus at some point in the future, a remain vote will be seen as an acceptance in Brussels, this is it, one chance.

[Condate]

As far as I can make out, what Condate wants to see is the EU disappearing completely, and all 28 member states to simply exist in isolation from one another, with no framework for collective action or collective agreements - on trade, the environment, on climate change, on international development or global security or anything else.

I certainly do want to see the EU disappear. I do not want to see the ex member states to exist in isolation. They can't and never did. I've made it perfectly clear before that isolation is undesirable. I expect to see the disappearance of the EU to be accompanied by the emergence of a new European framework of cooperation which is more stable and prosperous and better serves both the common interests of the nations and also their own particular interests as well. If I thought the EU was capable of developing into such an association, I would not want to leave, but would want to stay and bring about that change. I don't believe the EU is capable of changing to such an extent as to make it an acceptable future for Europe.

[Dave]

As far as I can make out, what Condate wants to see is the EU disappearing completely, and all 28 member states to simply exist in isolation from one another, with no framework for collective action or collective agreements - on trade, the environment, on climate change, on international development or global security or anything else.

Let's just take the last issue.  Two years ago the EU introduced sanctions against Russia, after Russia's illegal invasion of Crimea and other military activity in Eastern Ukraine.  The effect of those sanctions has been severe, and Russia's exports to the EU have since fallen by about half.  So acting together, the EU, with its population of c. 500 million, (greater than Russia and the USA combined), can be really powerful.  We have stood up to Putin in a way that no individual European country could ever have done.  That's why Russia is so keen on Brexit, of course.

Politically the EU has been a huge force for good.  For example it provided the incentive for Spain , Portugal and Greece to change from being dictatorships to being democratic.  And when the Iron Curtain came down, it absorbed many of the former Soviet bloc countries and fostered democracy in them too.   

If it didn't exist, we might not create it.  And there is a lot wrong with it.   But it does exist, and we would be mad to let it fall apart. 

[Condate]

EUrope is about people, way of life, not politician's grievances , laws and sovereign claims.

Europe is about people yes, but Europe is not the EU.

If I didn't have family commitments, l'd move here tomorrow. Most parts of it are more agreeable GB than. We should be trying to make ourselves more like it not distancing ourselves from it.

I've no wish to distance the UK from the other European nations. I think there is a great deal for us to learn from them and they from us. I just don't think the EU is relevant to the future of Europe.

[Condate]

I don't want to turn the clock back - I want a peaceful and strong land for my children for years to come.

I want a peaceful and strong land too. I also want a peaceful and strong France, Germany, Italy, Poland etc; all aware of how much we depend on each other and how much we need to work together. That's why I will be voting to leave the EU. It is essential, not only for the future of the UK, but for the future of Europe.

[Dave]

The bookies seem increasingly to be expecting a Remain vote, whuch is a relief!  See http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

The notion that Britain 'could' become the most hated nation also somehow implies that they are really valued inside the EU at the moment. Are we? are we really? Evidence please...

No shortage of that, melancholy!  Try this: http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/17/what-do-europeans-think-of-the-uk-s-brexit-referendum/

The majority view across Europe is that the EU is crying out for reform, and they want us to stay part of it in order to be a key partner in that.  People see that if we leave it could be the beginning of EU disintegration, which nobody in their right mind would want.