Mayoral and General Elections 2017

[Dave]

I think this would result in about half of the current labor MPs loosing their seats, with the work class parts of the UK turning blue! 

There's a lot of confusion about how Labour voters voted in the referendum. Because many Labour-held seats voted leave, it's assumed that most Labour voters voted Leave, but they didn't. On the contrary, we know that about two-thirds of those who voted Labour in 2015 went on to vote Remain in the referendum. 

The referendum 'polarised' the vote, because unlike a general election, where there are at least four candidates to vote for, in the referendum there were only two choices, Leave or Remain.  So the Leave majority in some Labour-held seats included lots of Tory and UKIP voters, as well as some Labour voters.

But some people haven't yet worked that out - including, sadly, the parliamentary Labour Party! 

[ringi]

Labour could have a chance nationally, but it would have to take a radical stance and watching Keir Starmer's recent performance on Brexit, I doubt it will adopt such a stance. But who knows? Jeremy Corbyn may be writing this into the promised, forthcoming manifesto as we speak.

It's this: Labour should announce that there will be NO Brexit and all negotiations to achieve it, in any shape form or texture, weather it be hard, soft, cliff-edge or anything else, will be aborted, in less than an hour after it takes governmental office.   

I think this would result in about half of the current labor MPs loosing their seats, with the work class parts of the UK turning blue!   If Corbyn does what his supporters wants, then most labor voters will hate him even more.

[CllrGeoffAbell]

Has there been any word on a labour candidate for Hazel Grove yet. Seems like the perfect place for Labour to make the gesture of a local Progressive Alliance and unite the anti-Tory vote. Very happy to see Marple Matters taking to the streets and showing local people that William Wragg record can be held to account and that he shouldn't just expect to be re elected unchallenged.

Brighton and Ealing are the first seats to declare a progressive alliance so that the most likely progressive candidate could win.  We'll see how this takes off. 

[simonesaffron]

Dave is right Hoffnung, you are well named.

Having said though, its a wonderful idea of yours. It would certainly certainly clarify the battle lines as far as Labour and the Tories are concerned. It would also answer the right-wing press furore that would undoubtedly follow.

What better way to answer their ... 'what about democracy fury,' than to remind them we are having a General Election in pursuit of it.

[Dave]

Labour should announce that there will be NO Brexit and all negotiations to achieve it, in any shape form or texture, weather it be hard, soft, cliff-edge or anything else, will be aborted, in less than an hour after it takes governmental office.   

Wishful thinking, I fear.  (Hoffnung, you are well named  )

[thegreenman]

Has there been any word on a labour candidate for Hazel Grove yet. Seems like the perfect place for Labour to make the gesture of a local Progressive Alliance and unite the anti-Tory vote. Very happy to see Marple Matters taking to the streets and showing local people that William Wragg record can be held to account and that he shouldn't just expect to be re elected unchallenged.

[Hoffnung]

Labour could have a chance nationally, but it would have to take a radical stance and watching Keir Starmer's recent performance on Brexit, I doubt it will adopt such a stance. But who knows? Jeremy Corbyn may be writing this into the promised, forthcoming manifesto as we speak.

It's this: Labour should announce that there will be NO Brexit and all negotiations to achieve it, in any shape form or texture, weather it be hard, soft, cliff-edge or anything else, will be aborted, in less than an hour after it takes governmental office.   

[Dave]

There is an outside chance that the L/D's could by some miracle fluke it in Hazel Grove

Agreed - it is not a write-off by any means.  If the Leave voters stay at home because they are expecting a Tory landslide so why bother voting, whilst the Remainers go out and vote for the only major party that is anti-Brexit, then it could just happen. 

A lot depends on whether Brexit is in the forefront of peoples' minds at the time of the election. At the moment, early in the campaign, both the Tories and Labour seem to be trying to change the subject, as if they want us all to forget about Brexit completely!

[Hoffnung]

There is little (if anything) to disagree with, in your hypothesis.

However, virtually any permutation of anything is better that the national, predicted, Tory Landslide.

There is an outside chance that the L/D's could by some miracle fluke it in Hazel Grove and whilst I would never vote for them locally, I'll support their snowball in hell's chance in the G.E

In addition to this I've had dealings with both Lisa & William and in my opinion Lisa would make the better MP.

[Dave]

Yes, I believe Lisa Smart has been formally adopted as the Libdem candidate for Hazel Grove.

Looking at Wragg's 2015 majority, however, it seems she has a mountain to climb if she is to overturn that.

General Election 2015

• Conservative         William Wragg   17,882   
  Liberal Democrat       Lisa Smart    11,330   
  Labour                   Michael Taylor   7,584   
  UKIP                     Darran Palmer    5,283   
  Green                   Graham Reid      1,140   
  
  

General Election 2010

• Liberal Democrat   Andrew Stunell           20,485   
  Conservative           Annesley Abercorn   14,114   
  Labour                   Richard Scorer             5,234   
  UKIP                     John Whittaker              2,148   
  
  

Comparing 2015 with 2010, we saw a dramatic collapse in the Libdem vote, from 20,485 in 2010 to 11,330 in 2015. Obviously there were at least two factors at work there: the national collapse in the Libdem vote after the five years of coalition, compounded by the retirement of Andrew Stunnell, who had a 'personal vote' as a well-regarded local MP.

Labour also did relatively well here last time, compared with 2010.  But even if all the 2015 Labour voters felt so strongly about Brexit that they were to switch to Libdem this time (and they won't!), that would only just be enough to win the seat from Wragg.  And I suspect Wragg's vote will increase, partly because many of the 5,000 UKIP voters in 2015 will return to the Tory fold now that the Tories are the Brexit party. 

Prediction: across the country as a whole, the Libdems will win some seats back from the Tories in 'Remain' areas.   But this is not a 'Remain' area.......

[Hoffnung]

Like many in all parties, Wragg is a Conservative party sheep. Whatever the Conservative leadership decides, he will fall in line with.

Prior to being our MP, he spent four years on the council from 2011-2015. He hardly raised an issue.  Rarely did he speak in the council chamber. He is our silent representative and he will vote for whatever the party whips tell him to vote for.

I know lots of young people who are buying their own houses and none of them are earning 74k per year. Perhaps Willy should take some lessons on financial prudence.

I'm sure that he is a nice guy personally, but if he is what we want to represent us at Westminster, then we deserve him. 

There is of course the conundrum of the parliamentary constituency. Which is that it will either return Conservative or Lib Dem. No other party has a chance. The Lib Dems have proven their mettle in the past with coalition and student fees. Now their 'leader' is running around the country behaving like a demented schoolboy.

What to do on election day?   

Who is the L/D candidate anyway? I've heard that it is Lisa Smart again, but I haven't seen anything official.

[JMC]

I think it is relevant to that he lives with his parents which is a large financial advantage that many others pushing 30 don't have. It is also highly unusual for an MP so will draw attention. As another poster said, he doesn't have the worry of paying the bills every month. How can he then empathise with others? He doesn't seem to empathise with people on disability benefits or hard working low paid parents loosing money.

[JMC]

Just a thought....

If Ed Balls stood in Hazel Grove we could have a 'Balls in Willy out' campaing.

It'd certainly liven things up.

I love that idea!

[CllrGeoffAbell]

It's worth looking at how Wragg voted - basically with the government on almost anything.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25360/william_wragg/hazel_grove

I may be a little bias, of course...

I wonder who Labour will put up.
And interesting Facebook group names.

Theoretically you shouldn't put up election posters more than 6 weeks before the election.  Not massively important, but if he's bending the rules on that, what else?

I agree with @andrewbowden in that the mayoral election should generate a good, strong voice for the whole of Manchester.

[andrewbowden]

I think it is a fair point.

What concerns do you have that you hope the elected representative shares or at least has an understanding of.

Energy prices? Other utilities? Food prices and sustainability? Council Tax? making sure you can pay the bills and keep a roof above your and your families head - what happens if it doesn't go to plan?

 The cost of home ownership, insurance etc etc.

Cooking for yourself and doing your own washing?!

On an income of 74K and is on record saying he can't save enough for a deposit - and they want us to believe that the Tories are economically literate! - everyone else I meet seem to have managed to save up on much less!

Personally I'm more concerned about the fact that his career history outside is woeful.  He's 29 and his one and only job outside politics (according to Wikipedia) was as a primary school teacher.  Nothing wrong with being a teacher.  I know several and they're hard working and dedicated.  But he didn't actually manage to spend a year in the profession before he quit it, to go and work for an MP.  His life outside politics is minimal.  Doesn't give me any confidence at all that he's got any idea what life is like outside the Westminster bubble.